In October 2025, Beijing imposed sweeping controls on its rare earth exports. Since then, those controls have been suspended one short reprieve at a time, in the latest instance until Nov. 10, with a broader trade truce through Jan. 10, 2027. The reprieves have repeatedly come only after American concessions, demonstrating China’s leverage in the export fight.
Yet China has constricted sales even during the truce, as buyers have few options but to take what they can get. In June, with the suspension in force, Beijing placed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, the two companies the U.S. is counting on to build an alternative supply to China, on an export control list.
Washington’s effort to rebuild the supply chain, meanwhile, has not yet reached the scale or durability the problem requires. With up to $100 billion in loan authority specifically earmarked for critical minerals in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the capital undoubtedly exists. What is missing is alignment of interests among the parties that would supply and benefit from it, and a political system patient enough to hold a course for the decade or more that rebuilding a supply chain takes.
