OIL markets initially treated the Iran war as a brief bullish disruption in a long-term bearish trend. But traders are now betting that oil prices will remain elevated through 2028, forcing a rethink of the global inflation outlook.
Eight months into the war, the buffers that helped absorb the initial energy shock — most notably onshore crude oil stockpiles — are wearing dangerously thin. At the same time, the recovery in crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile, global refining capacity has been eroded and credible diplomatic pathways to end the conflict appear narrower than ever.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures tell the story. Contracts for delivery in December next year have climbed more than 13 per cent since the start of September to US$86 a barrel, the highest level for the contract, while this December, contracts have gained around 12 per cent.
