I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?
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Key takeaways
The article questions the effectiveness of prediction markets compared to polls and models during the midterms.
- Prediction markets did not outperform polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model.
- Close races showed no significant advantage for prediction markets.
- The author suggests treating prediction markets as entertainment.
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Related reporting
4 stories on this topic from 3 sources, oldest first.
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- Hacker News Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms? (this story)
