AI labs built a gun to shoot SWEs, and the bullet went straight through their own customers.
For three years the pitch from the big AI model labs has been beautifully simple. Software engineers are the most expensive employees on Earth. Companies spend staggering sums on them. So build an AI software engineer, sell it to those companies, and collect the salaries they no longer have to pay. Fire the human, rent the robot. The labs pocket the difference.
It’s a lovely story. It’s the story that justified every funding round, every data center, every breathless investor letter about “replacing knowledge work.” And it has a hole in it so big you could fly a fleet of GPUs through it.
Here is what the software business actually was: a toll booth. Not a factory, a toll booth.
