This has been an era of shocks. In the space of two decades, the world has witnessed globally disruptive wars—from Iraq in the 2000s to Ukraine and Iran today—a global financial crisis, a global pandemic, and a rogue American president upending the global order.

Now, yet another potential shock must be addressed: Though few dare to speculate about it publicly, an economic and political perfect storm is bearing down on China.

On the political front, Chinese president Xi Jinping has ruthlessly eliminated all potential opposition and centralised power in his own hands.

His decimation of the state, party, provincial, and military leadership has left a trail of bodies and resentment, even if the impenetrability of the Communist Party of China (CPC) makes this difficult to establish definitively.