THOMAS Carvo went to school for meteorology and applies his forecasting knowledge to trade on the weather in different cities on the prediction market Kalshi, which allows users to bet on topics ranging from who will be President Donald Trump’s next press secretary to when Nasa will next land on the moon.
The 28-year-old, based in Georgia, first dabbled with Kalshi in the 2024 US presidential election when he traded US$700 (RM2,836) on a 60% chance that Trump would win. Carvo says he made close to US$500 on that trade, with others typically earning around US$100. Nowadays, he mainly uses Kalshi to trade on NFL and college football events, along with the weather.
Carvo doesn’t like placing random bets. “I’m looking at the consistency and the repeatability of it, and if I can’t repeat it in a consistent manner, I don’t really care,” he says. He’s even built a Claude-powered bot that analyses football games and builds data to help his odds. It’s a work in progress, he says.
