NOVEMBER 12 — Every few years, governments publish a glossy report about the future. It will be full of impressive charts, expert quotes, and bold predictions about artificial intelligence, clean energy, and the industries of tomorrow.
This is the strange state of “technology foresighting”. Countries know they need to do it. Technology changes constantly, and nobody wants to be the nation still building fax machines while everyone else moves to email. So governments hire experts, run workshops, and produce lots of reports.
After all that effort, are countries actually any better prepared for the future? Often, no.
The first problem is a basic misunderstanding of what foresight is for. Many people assume the goal is to predict the future: figure out exactly which technologies will matter, then invest in those. Pick the winners, avoid the losers.
