Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict – according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.

Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.

While global energy demand continues to rise, two thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles.