MIDDLE East crude exports recently climbed to their highest levels since the start of the Iran war as more Gulf producers resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz —despite the continued threat of Iranian attacks. Yet oil prices remain stubbornly elevated, suggesting logistical problems are proving as disruptive as outright supply losses.

Crude flows through the embattled waterway reached 14.2 million barrels per day on a seven-day average on Sept 26, nearly 80 per cent of pre-war levels. While volumes have declined since, they will likely be revised higher because ships often disable satellite tracking systems while traversing the strait and for several days thereafter.

Either way, the trend is clear: a lot more crude is getting through the strait. So why is Brent still trading above US$100 per barrel? In a word, logistics.